The real estate blog.

25 real estate markets poised to fall read the headline on CNNMoney this morning. I was curious to see if Salt Lake was on the list. Sure enough, it was. When I examined the “criteria” displayed for making the list, I was a little disappointed…again…with the reporting. The photo article showed three data points: the 15 year average price/rent ratio, the current ratio and a five year projected forecast. For Salt Lake, the forecast is -22.5%. (Is that a 22.5% decline per year or 22.5% at the end of five years which is 4.5% per year?)

Initially I was pretty peeved, until I saw this companion piece which explained things a little better. Still the negative skew on the whole has me irked. The “decline” could be avoided by an increase in rents, increased demand for housing or any other combination of unpredictable events. The pretentiousness of presenting projections as facts is misleading and tiring.

I’m not saying there’s no reason for concern out there. The American economy is at a turning point and certainly not booming, but is it really that bad? My friend Mark Alder feels the same way. He recently wrote on his new blog -

Number of homes sold in October up 30 units from 10 years ago.

893 units sold in sold in Salt Lake County for October 2007. That is 30 more than the 863 sold ten years ago for October 1997 in Salt Lake County. Mark Alder, a local realtor, says “more homes sold in October 2007 than October 1997 ” Despite pressures from newspapers and television and tighter lending standards, homes continue to sell. This really shows how resilient our housing market is.

(actual data taken from the WFRMLS on Nov 2, 2007)

Now before you get to thinking we’re disgruntled real estate professionals, consider what Stanley Bing had to say today on his blog. He’s not part of the “REIC” and he’s tired of all the negativity too -

Anyhow, I read a really stupid thing the other day and it made me think how close we all are to crushing ourselves in a real honest-to-God panic the way those soccer maniacs do to each other every couple of years. One person gets spooked, then another, and pretty soon people are trampling over each other like lemmings eager to hurl themselves over the nearest cliff.

People like Mark and I are not bitter, we’re simply offering another viewpoint to combat the poor reporting by the mainstream media. (Not to say the MSM wasn’t reporting incorrectly during the boom.)

Mr. Bing has another suggestion to all the doomsayers -

You know what? I have a reasonable, sane suggestion for the FT, the analysts, boozy brokers, et. al. Here it is: Shut… up. Please. I’m begging you. Let me put it another way. Go home, all of you. And don’t talk to anybody or write anything at all for the next three or four days. You don’t know anything anyhow, so it should be easy.

Look at it this way: It’s nearly Friday. You’ve had a busy week, moving the markets down, scaring everybody with all the horrendous words that make people run on banks, sell stocks, start stashing cash under their mattresses. Inflation. Stagflation. Recession. Depression. Recession. All of the above! Aieeee!

Take tomorrow off. Go pet your dog or something. You guys are going to create all the things that you’re frothing about if you’re not careful.

I’m not telling the media to shut up. I’m just telling them to be realistic. Check your facts and stop scaring people. Do you really want your exaggerated headlines to come true? I think not.